French voters on Sunday night denied the Rassemblement National (RN) control of the National Assembly, delivering a significant setback to the partyās ambitions and to the expectations of many pundits. The commentariat, including myself, had largely believed the RNās moment had arrived.
I even predicted in these pages that the far-right party might secure a governing majority in the National Assembly through an alliance with Les RƩpublicains. However, French voters quickly disproved that theory just two days after press-time. Ah, well.
Despite gaining the highest number of votes in both the first and second rounds of the legislative electionsā32 percent in the former and 37 percent in the latterāthe RN (143 seats) ended up as the third-largest faction in the French Parliamentās lower house. They were outpaced by the leftās Nouveau Front Populaire (181 seats) and President Emmanuel Macronās Ensemble (163 seats). The mainstream partiesāĀ front rĆ©publicaināa strategic alliance where the NFP and Ensemble united to defeat far-right candidates in the run-offāonce again blocked the RNās path to power. Macron had been preparing for a divided government with RNās chief, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister. Now, it seems the premiership will likely be offered to a leader of the NFP, potentially leading France, which has recently trended rightward, towards a left-wing government.
For some supporters of the populist right, the election results brought despair. Jordan Bardella himself condemned the ācoalition of dishonorā that thwarted the popular will through backroom deals.
Yet, the RNās setback can also be viewed as a victory. The party increased its number of deputies by half, from 89 to 143, consolidated a near-exclusive hold on the regions of Picardie and Provence, and significantly weakened rival parties to its immediate left and right (LR and Eric Zemmourās ReconquĆŖte). Even if the RN cannot govern, it has demonstrated its ability to prevent others from doing so. France is currently heading toward a political crisis, as neither the center nor the left bloc has a mandate to run the country.
The populist right in France still has a promising future. The issues fueling the RNās riseāthe cost of living crisis and mass migrationāare long-term, structural problems for the entire Western world. The neoliberal consensus of open markets and open borders has not and cannot resolve them.
Contrary to the RNās complaints,Ā Franceās political class did not break any rules in forming a republican front. Strategic voting and electoral alliances are standard features of democratic politics. However, the republican front is showing its age, as the constituent parties share little in common aside from opposing the RN. France needs a functional parliament, and the republican frontāspanning from communists to moderate conservativesāwill struggle to agree on a budget or a strategy to address the countryās crumbling finances and social unrest. The RN stands to benefit from the weaknesses of what it calls āthe uniparty.ā
RN officials have much to learn from these election results. The party made numerous unforced errors, the worst being a hasty candidate selection process. The RN had to choose 577 individuals to run for the National Assembly, but a lack of time and professional cadres made this task difficult. Predictable chaos ensued. The media uncovered several scandals among RN candidates, such as a candidate withdrawing after an image of her in Nazi regalia surfaced, another being disavowed for a Facebook post justifying the Holocaust, and others who were simply unfit for office, including one who had served prison time for taking a mayor hostage and another who was ineligible due to mental illness. Read More.Ā
By Daniel Solomon
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